Highlights
Purchase volume is getting harder to find, but that doesn’t mean borrower opportunity has disappeared. As purchase activity slows, mortgage companies can look beyond traditional purchase leads and focus on identifying borrowers with other financial needs. In a tighter market, better targeting and measuring results through applications, funded loans and cost per funded loan become even more important.
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The latest housing data is giving mortgage companies something to think about.
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage applications for new home purchases fell 5.7% year over year in July 2026.
The existing-home market is facing similar pressure. Existing-home sales declined 1.7% in July, while pending home sales fell 2.3% from June and 2.2% year over year, reaching their lowest level since January.
The purchase market isn’t disappearing. But volume is getting harder to find.
For mortgage companies, that raises an important question: Should you compete harder for the same purchase borrowers, or look for opportunity somewhere else?
Mortgage Demand Doesn’t Stop at Purchase
Purchase is only one reason a borrower may need a mortgage product.
Existing borrowers may be considering cash-out, debt consolidation, home improvements, reverse mortgages or other financial options. And those needs don’t necessarily disappear because rates are higher.
That’s an important distinction.
A borrower with a low first-mortgage rate may have little interest in a traditional rate-and-term refinance. But someone carrying significant higher-interest revolving debt could look at today’s mortgage rates very differently.
Instead of asking:
“Who wants to refinance?”
Mortgage professionals should be asking:
“Which borrowers have a financial reason to consider their mortgage options right now?”
A Tighter Market Makes Targeting More Important
When there’s less volume to go around, broadly marketing to anyone who could qualify isn’t enough.
The opportunity is identifying borrowers whose equity, debt profile, property characteristics, loan attributes or other data points indicate a relevant need, then reaching them with a message that actually matches that need.
And targeting is only half of the equation.
Campaigns should be measured beyond initial leads and responses. Applications, funded loans and cost per funded loan provide a much clearer picture of whether an acquisition strategy is working.
Don’t Wait for the Market to Create Demand
Purchase business will remain an important part of the mortgage market. But the latest numbers are a reminder of the risk of relying too heavily on one source of volume.
Mortgage companies can’t control rates, home prices or when purchase demand accelerates again.
They can control where they look for their next borrower.
At Camber, we’ve spent more than 20 years helping mortgage companies use data and direct mail to identify and reach borrowers based on the opportunities that exist in the market today.
When purchase volume gets harder to find, the answer isn’t always to compete harder for the same borrowers. Sometimes it’s knowing where else to look.
